Seminar| Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Time: Saturday, December 27th, 2025, 9:30-10:00AM
Location: RS408, IMS
Speaker: Chuoxin Ma, Beijing Normal University & Hong Kong Baptist University United International College
Abstract: Biomarker variability is a well-established predictor of disease risk. Borrowing ideas from smoothing splines, we propose a new variability measure which characterizes the roughness of the subject-specific biomarker trajectory by the integrated amount of its second derivatives over time. A novel semiparametric multiplicative random effects model is proposed for biomarker trajectories, coupled with a Cox proportional hazards model that incorporates biomarker variability as a covariate. The proposed model is both more flexible and computationally efficient than existing methods. We apply our approach to data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study to assess the impact of systolic blood pressure variability on cardiovascular mortality.