Colloquium| Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Time:Wednesday, November 27th, 2024 , 16:00-17:00
Location:IMS, RS408
Speaker:Albert Fässler,Dr. sc. math. ETH
Abstract:
Climate Change increases the mean global temperature of the earth’s surface and therefore the mean global temperature of the oceans.
NOAA: Between 1850 –and 2022, the mean temperature per decade increased by around
0.04℃ on the water surface,
0.09℃ on the earth’s surface.
According to NOOA’s 2023 Report, the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.06℃per decade since 1850, but since 1982, the rate of warming with 0.20℃is more than three times as high.
With the increase of the CO2-equivalence in ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere, mainly caused by fossil fuels combustion, the temperatures of water and land will increase in the future,until there will behopefully reached a balance, leading to stationary mean temperatures for sea and land.
Three scenarios for the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are calculated using the Zero-dimensional Energy Balance Model: the courses of the temperature increase of the earth’s surface in the future with the stationary higher values (limit values) of 1.5℃, 2.0℃and 3.0℃compared to the pre-industrial time will be analyzed.
By comparing the anomalies of the temperatures for sea and land in the past, the increase of the mean temperature of the oceans in the future can be estimated.
However, a crucial criteria has to be fulfilled for the mentioned limit temperatures: the carbon budget. It will be shown, that this is a real challenge for mankind!
Email: albert-faessler@bluewin.ch
Homepage. http://albertfaessler.ch/